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| Construction of the regression prediction model for the duration of breastfeeding of parturients |
| Ningbo Fourth Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, 315700 |
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Abstract To explore the influencing factors of the breastfeeding duration of parturients, and to establish a regression prediction model for the duration of breastfeeding of the parturients. Methods: A total of 262 parturients who had given birth in the hospital from December 2022 to December 2023 were selected as the research objects. According to whether exclusive breastfeeding of parturients was performed or not within 6 months after delivery, these parturients were divided into group A (the parturients with exclusive breastfeeding within 6 months after delivery) and group B (the parturients without exclusive breastfeeding within 6 months after delivery). The general demographic data and the related clinical characteristics of the parturients in the two groups were collected. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent influencing factors of the exclusive breastfeeding of the parturients within 6 months after delivery, and the regression prediction model was established based on these influencing factors, and the goodness of fit and predictive value of the model were determined. Results: A total of 262 questionnaires were distributed in this study, and 254 valid questionnaires were recovered, with an effective recovery rate of 97.0%. Among 254 parturients, 91 parturients were exclusively breastfed within 6 months after delivery, accounting for 35.8%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the employment status and the conscious lack of breast milk of the parturients were the independent risk factors of their absence of exclusive breastfeeding within 6 months after the delivery. The breastfeeding experience, the support for breastfeeding by the family members and the high score of the breastfeeding knowledge of the parturients were the independent protective factors of their exclusive breastfeeding (all P<0.05). A regression prediction model was established based on the regression coefficients of these five independent influencing factors, Logit (P)= 6.878 + 2.378 ×employment status (on-the-job=1, off-the-job=0) -2.264 ×breastfeeding experience (yes=1, no=0) -1.553 × breastfeeding supported status of family members (support =1, neutral /no support=0) + 2.261 ×conscious lack of breast milk (yes=1, no=0) -0.482 × breastfeeding knowledge score (points). Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good goodness of fit. ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the regression prediction model for predicting the absence of exclusive breastfeeding of the parturients within 6 months after delivery was 0.949 (95% CI 0.925-0.973). When the maximum value of the Youden index was 0.721, the best predictive sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the model for predicting the absence of exclusive breastfeeding were 85.3% 86.8% and 85.8%, respectively. Conclusion: The regression prediction model constructed in this study has good predictive value for the duration of breastfeeding of the parturients, and which can provide evidences for the clinical prediction of the duration of breastfeeding of the parturients.
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