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| Study of the association between the environmental carbon emission and the occurrence of preterm birth |
| 1. Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730; 2. National Human Genetic Resources Center, National Research Institute for Family Planning |
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Abstract To study the relationship between the carbon emissions and the risk of preterm birth. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on the participants from the National Free Pre-pregnancy Health Examination Project. The data of carbon emissions and air quality were obtained from Global Infrastructure Emission Database (GID) and China Environmental Monitoring Center, respectively. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and the occurrence of preterm birth, and the odds ratio (OR) was used to measure the degree of the risk of preterm birth. The preterm birth prediction model was constructed by random forest, and which was verified by the ten-fold cross-validation. Results: A total of 265,885 pregnant women were included in the study, of which, 29,294 women had preterm births. The value of carbon emissions (4797822.4 ± 6396398.6 tons) of the women with preterm birth were significantly higher than that (4564051.9±6376580.4 tons) of the women without preterm birth (P<0.001). Logistic regression showed that carbon emission was an independent risk factor of PTB (OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.11) after adjusting the confounding factors. After analyzing carbon emissions from different sources, it is found that carbon emissions from power and aviation were the main risk factors of preterm birth. The area under the receiver operating curve of the prediction model was 0.7388 (95% CI 0.7359-0.7417). Conclusion: Increased carbon emissions might increase the risk of preterm birth, and the carbon emissions from power and aviation sources might be the main risk factors leading to preterm birth.
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