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| Construction of the predictive model of recurrence of hysteromyoma after uterine artery embolization |
| 1. Jinhua People's Hospital, Zhejiang Province, 32100；2. Affiliated Hospital of Hangzhou Normal university |
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Abstract To analyze the risk factors of recurrence of hysteromyoma after uterine artery embolization, and to establish a nomogram model for predicting recurrence. Methods: 314 patients with hysteromyoma treated by uterine artery embolization from March 2014 to July 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were followed-up for 1-3 years after operation, and the recurrence rate was statistically analyzed. According to whether the recurrence occurred, these women were divided into recurrence group and non recurrence group. Logistic regression model was used to screen the risk factors of recurrence. Based on the risk factors, the nomogram prediction model of recurrence was established by R software, and the accuracy and consistency of the model were evaluated. Results: A total of 67 of 314 patients recurred with 21.3% recurrence rate. Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR 0.923, 95% CI 0.868-0.980), the tumor diameter≥6cm (OR 4.817, 95% CI 2.482-9.347), and the multiple hysteromyoma (OR 2.866, 95% CI 1.544-5.320) were the independent risk factors of hysteromyoma recurrence. The independent risk factors were introduced into R software (R 3.6.3) to construct nomogram model, the area under ROC curve was 0.860（95%CI 0.803-0.918）, and the calibration curve was a straight line with slope close to 1, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 8.528 (P=0.384). Conclusion: The nomogram prediction model based on the risk factors of postoperative recurrence of hysteromyoma has good discrimination and accuracy, which can provide certain clinical guidance value for the formulation of individualized prevention measures of postoperative recurrence of hysteromyoma.
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